End of the shoulder season?

𝐈𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐨𝐧? (𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥)

Many years ago, when I started in the real estate business in Michigan City, there was such a clear demarcation line of the end of the Summer season.  You could set your clock to the slowdown that would occur at the end of August.  This never made sense to me because this would leave historically the best month to be in Michigan City with virtually no vacationers to be seen. September had empty beaches, and the existing restaurants at the time felt empty.

That is no longer the case.  


The frustrations of the early investors in Michigan City have been how to extend the Summer season to develop more of an even distribution of investment dollars over the course of the year.  If you got a rental in September 20-25 years ago, it was like winning the lottery.  Rentals in September are now a given, and many of my friends and investors can talk about a 60 to 65% occupancy rate for the year.


Warmer than usual Fall seasons and a shorter winter have created a better environment for local travel.  The capture of these travelers has been boosted by more recognition of what Michigan City has to offer. 


In fact, a two-man team from Michigan who set up shop in Michigan City for the short-term rental business had every property booked every weekend in December. They were pushing their overflow to other owner-operators. 


In short, the less than stark transformation from season to season we had in previous decades has led to a much more robust market for visitors and investors.  There are simply more people here throughout the year than there have ever been before.  The demand for vacation spaces has been met by entrepreneurs who have developed several hundred units to satisfy this demand.

 

When will this supply meet some resistance?  I am not sure when, but I do know is that the rate of visitors is only going to increase.  There will be a moment of reckoning for the investors who are not committed to the hospitality business. Those hanging a shingle out on their one-bedroom apartment without central air and a responsive manager will be beaten by the people who have gone all in on providing a great stay. 


The professional operators are out there, and they are taking no prisoners in their approach.  They have a full-time staff and have cleaning dialed in to beat expectations, and great reviews follow.  These operators pose no threat to the ecosystem because their neighbors appreciate their approach and watchful eye on who they are renting to. 


The new visitors will make other businesses more viable in Michigan City and do a large part for the local economy.  I did like having the beach to myself in September, but I can live with the tradeoff of becoming a real destination for travelers and creating a stronger business environment.